Causal GTM: The Evidence Standard for 2026 — Fireside Chat with Mark Stouse & Dina Habib OMara

Julia Nimchinski:
And we are live! Welcome back to Day 2 of the Agentic Singularity Summit. Today is gonna be an amazing day, stacked by CMOs, CROs, CEOs, analysts, founders, operators, and we’re gonna map What’s on the cutting edge for 2026? We have a positive prediction from Mark. Mark, do this to start things off here. Let’s do it, Mark.
Mark Stouse:
A positive one, huh? You know, actually, I think that 2026 is… we’re gonna see… and I realize this is sort of an unprecedented or hard-to-fathom statement, really, is what I mean by that. Given what we’ve all been through already. But, I think it’s gonna be a pretty tough year. I think it’s gonna have an enormous amount of change. Macro and micro. In fact, the synergies of all this is actually what’s going to be, you know, a big part of the challenge. I think that, specific to GTM, Right? When you’re selling to someone, they’re… they’re… where they are in their heads and in their hearts really matters. And I think that that’s the primary headwind in 2026 and 2027. Right? Is… is where the buyer’s head is, and… we’re seeing unprecedented use of AI defensively. This is… this is… this happens with certain technologies throughout history, right? Nuclear would be another one, obviously. But AI is in an arms race now, unlike probably anything other than outside of cybersecurity, right? It’s a… it’s in an arms race. to actually defeat GTM. outbound GTM, and… That is… that’s something we all need to really kind of… grab a whiskey or your favorite beverage and… and stare into the fire about, right? Because that… that is… Setting technology and everything else aside. What that says is not good.
Julia Nimchinski:
On this note, yesterday we had an incredibly visionary day. Today, I’m assuming it’s gonna be a soft grounding. I’m really excited to kick things off with a fireside Chat led by Dina Habib Omara, Global Marketing and Partner Marketing GTM Executive and Industry Advisor, and Mark Stooges, Chairman at Proof Causal Advisory. Dina, let’s hear your predictions, and the stage is yours.
Dina OMara:
Thank you. Hi, everyone! Mark, Julia, thank you so much. It’s great to be here with you. My prediction 2026, we’re seeing the themes. Mark, you just touched on it. I’m going to go on two sides of the coin here. And that is, the narrowing gap. So we have the changing buyer behaviors, but when we think of the use of agentic AI, and oh my god, if we hear one more thought about AI, our heads are gonna explode, right? But… We’re here to really provide how this gap is narrowing so much that it is so critical and pivotal that we need to truly get to the speed, if not faster, in how the buyers are working, how AI can work for us in real time, and really get into the shift of going past correlation into causation, which is what Mark and I are going to be talking about today. So that is a huge trend we’re seeing. It’s been noted by Forrester, it’s been noted by Gartner. We’ll cite some of these statistics for you today. And with that, Mark, I think we’ll kick off.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah, no, that’s awesome.
Dina OMara:
Alright, so, Mark, I am going to be representing our audience with you today. It’s so cool. This is a topic near and dear to our hearts. data, results, getting the budgets, the speed at which we need to be agile and pivot and so forth in the market. I think this is going to be really interesting with both of our mindsets and perspectives. I come as a go-to-market strategist, readily representing our audiences, our CMOs, CROs, CFOs, and operations folks, and you’re coming in with this very good technical, scientific. and the rigor and governance, and we’re going to blend that together for everyone today. So, one of the things I wanted to mention to everybody, I’m going to be looking at some really key notes and questions here, back and forth, so you’ll see my eyes shifting around. is we are in a shift of going from correlation to causation, and this is what we all need to be doing. We will explain what that means. one of the first questions I have for Mark is on that. And we’re under so much pressure as it relates to the type of programs we’re launching and how we get the budget. For example, in today’s world. to say, I have a campaign that produced 500 leads from the campaign. Okay? What… what does that mean? I have an event. My ROI was 200 people attended. Okay.
Mark Stouse:
Neither one of these things are real.
Dina OMara:
Right, exactly, and an enablement. Today, I trained completion of 90% of those that were invited, or number of people trained. There is no… the cause and effect, and that’s what we’re going to talk about today. Get out of, and I think this is another answer to Julia’s question, the trend in 2026. Thinking outside of traditional thinking. traditional roles, and we’re going to be redefining what I just said as it relates to go-to-market strategies and the science. And, technology we can put behind it. So, Mark, I think one of the first questions I have, and I’ll try to back it up as we talk with statistics, though, let’s discuss Causal go-to-market. What does that mean? Let’s just start… For everyone on that one.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah, it’s… it’s a… it’s… you know, we all… decision-making, the choices we make, the bets we place in go-to-market or in business in general, right? These are… these are all… things that have to… we have to navigate. These are not static. It’s an ongoing journey through a world of change. Right? What that really means is that if it worked last year, it might still work this year, but it might not. And if you don’t know what that is, and you can’t, you know, kind of, like, rebalance your portfolio accordingly, you’re gonna be in a problem. And this is actually the number one reason Why we’ve seen such a tanking of effectiveness in go-to-market. Right? Yeah. Since 2018. Particularly in the last, say, 3 or 4 years. It’s been really bad, right? We, at the end of 2025 now, we’re… we’re, like, 54% ineffective. So, that’s… you know, $1 out of every two, basically, that sucks. That’s a phenomenal sum of money. Just since 2022, So that… and the reason why I’m picking that year is that’s when interest rates skyrocketed and stuff, and started to really put this front and center. We’re talking about… 15… trillion dollars? shareholder capital that has been, let’s just use, the right word, wasted.
Dina OMara:
Yay.
Mark Stouse:
in go-to-market, right? Globally. And that’s just, you can’t… that’s not a sustainable thing.
Dina OMara:
Yeah. I’m going to piggyback. You said $15 trillion. Coincidentally, I have a statistic on that number. Forrester has said, we need for causal AI to connect go-to-market activities, events, enablement, directly to revenue outcomes, and that’s why we’re here today. Also, Gartner had reported 2028, by 2028, the 90% of B2B buying will be AI agent intermediated, pushing the $15 trillion, like you’re saying, in spend. through agent exchange. So we’re here to kind of sandwich that together, as we talked just earlier as we kicked off. The buying behavior, supported by the technology. This has become so… integral now. We can’t… I mean, there’s no ignoring it. It is the new way of go-to-market, and let’s bring that to life. So, one of the key questions I wanted to, ask you Mark is, why have causal models become the new baseline? for decision making. Well, now we’re going deeper and deeper. There is, I…
Mark Stouse:
I think it’s because, yeah, I think you just have to say that it’s because they deal in reality. whatever is the scenario, whatever is… whatever it is you’re looking at, seeking to model, right? By definition, it’s not weighted, it’s not biased, it’s… It’s just the reality of whatever it is at that moment, right?
Dina OMara:
Yes.
Mark Stouse:
And the fact, too, that it re… causal AI recomputes at whatever frequency you need it to recompute. to support your decision-making cadence, right? And so… That is a huge thing. I mean, MMM, econometric analysis, all this kind of stuff. Has it… the problem is not with the math. The problem is operationalizing the math. To support decision-making at a cadence that’s real, right? And anybody who’s used those techniques knows that they generally are pretty accurate, but they’re also pretty late. Right? So even the forecasts are in the past by the time the marketing team or the business team gets them, right?
Dina OMara:
Exactly, exactly.
Mark Stouse:
And that is… and so that is a bust. It’s… and again, it’s not the math, it’s… It’s how you operationalize it.

Dina OMara:
Let’s dig into that. So, we are all… needing to do real-time adjustments. We all talk about agility for exactly that reason. You… you talk about this great analogy, and I love to dig into it, the GPS. the navigation system. So let’s bring that to life a little bit. Governance, and the way in which the fiduciary perimeters are closing around go-to-market, so… Let’s dive in a little bit to that. This is exactly what is needed for this modeling, and how we can do that.
Mark Stouse:
Sure, I mean, the thing that’s so great about the GPS analog is that It’s actually… it’s the analog that never breaks, because the math is essentially the mathematical techniques are the same. Right? So, like, if you… if you look at our product, Proof, Right? It is… It’s a GPS in the sense that it’s going to be looking at the recent past, okay? It’s going to be forecasting forward, and then it’s going to be updating those forecasts, again, at whatever frequency you need. So… the whole idea here is, is that when you need to course correct, you know ASAP what… not only that you need to course correct, but how you can best course correct, right? Just like when you’re in your car, driving along, and all of a sudden there’s a wreck ahead, right, and you have to reroute, you know?
Dina OMara:
Yes.
Mark Stouse:
same principle. This is what’s also called managing, in this case, go-to-market, on a risk-adjusted basis. And beginning 3 years ago with the Delaware fiduciary duty rulings in the McDonald’s case, and then quite a few others since then. That has become a hallmark going forward in terms of accountability inside of corporations, so… The… the kind of the really fast, down-and-dirty version is… The fiduciary duty of oversight got spread to all corporate officers, and then they lowered the bar for breach on fiduciary duty to negligence. And so, individual… corporate officers, the CMO, the CRO, whoever, can be sued by shareholders directly with personal accountability, right?
Dina OMara:
If they can’t show that they’ve been managing their portfolio on a risk-adjusted basis.
Mark Stouse:
The SEC, 3 weeks ago, came out with another announcement that it has.
Dina OMara:
profound impact.
Mark Stouse:
Right? And that is, it’s going to require companies to prove and certify the accuracy levels of any AI that they’re using in their operations.
Dina OMara:
Yeah, this is really key for everyone to take note of. New law coming into effect. July 1, 2026, for everybody. marketing, finance, etc. This is huge. Kind of an extension of GDPR, which occurred around May 18… May 2018, and now… and that was with the EU, and the U.S. and others were going, yeah, it’s probably coming, it’s here. And the myth that it’s only for Fortune 500 companies is new. Like you said, it’s for everybody.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah, the SEC…
Dina OMara:
This is really critical, everyone. Take note, July 1, 2026, look for those rulings. This is really important for AI, your data stream, privacy, GDPR compliance, etc.
Mark Stouse:
Well, I think that also, one of the things that’s really interesting about it, because I’ve… That’s a passion. I have some… so I used to be very political, like, 30 years ago, and so I still have some friends that are in that world, and so they hooked me up with some people inside the SEC. And the SEC knows. that… companies using Gen AI tools, LLMs, things like this. Can’t do that. Can’t meet the requirement, because… those LLMs don’t… Self-score accuracy, right? What they return to the user is essentially the most popular data. out there, the prevailing data. It’s not anything about accuracy, as probably most people know at this point, right? So what does that mean? It means that they have to go to causal AI, right? Yeah.
Dina OMara:
Yeah. As a technique.
Mark Stouse:
to… Make it all happen, just to be able to certify what’s going on.

Dina OMara:
Yeah. So, on that note, trust.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah.
Dina OMara:
We have, you know, people asking for budgets, you have the finance, the chief revenue officers, chief financial officers. You want to spend how much on this, and how do I know it’s going to deliver? Talk about how having a causal AI go-to-market model, or causal AI model even. can help with that trust, and that… that confidence, that foundation that CROs and CMOs and CFOs can all solidly stand on.
Mark Stouse:
There’s an old saying, right, that’s very apropos here, and that is that the proof of the pudding is in the eating thereof, right? And so… What they’re really saying here on trust is, If you make a promise. In order to get this loan, this CAC loan, okay?
Dina OMara:
Yeah.
Mark Stouse:
How… what… like, how sure are you, and how… what is the basis of how sure you are that it’s gonna turn out right? Particularly given the fact that 70-80% of whatever drives an outcome is not under your control. Right? So you have to be able to say, not only are we able to forecast this, but we’re able to change our forecasts As things change, and update them, right? And that is actually something that they already understand, because that’s what they do on a quarterly basis. They issue guidance, and then they issue… the actuals.
Dina OMara:
Yes.
Mark Stouse:
Right? And that’s really what they’re expecting from everyone going forward. The other part of this… This is part of the guidance thing, is the issue of time lag in go-to-market. This is… The idea that when you spend the money in a campaign or whatever, right, it does not have an instantaneous effect. Right?
Dina OMara:
That’s right.
Mark Stouse:
In B2B, so this is… this is really important to say B2B, okay? In B2B, time lags on… on go-to-market investment are anywhere from 9 to 16 months in general. Right? Brand investments can be longer initially, right, but then if you sustain them, all of that tends to kind of level out. You don’t get the lag on brand that you did in the beginning. But on everything else. It’s lagged, and so you have to be able to say, okay, we’re gonna spend this amount of money, and we have very high confidence that it’s gonna support This sales outcome. Over the next… 7 quarters. Right? And break that out, and say, okay, you know, because it’s a curve, right? And so, the early quarters are going to be like this, and then it’s going to kind of do this… sorry, I’m running out of screen here. And then it’s going to… if you don’t maintain it, it’s going to taper off, right?
Dina OMara:
Exactly, exactly.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah, so that’s what they’re after. I mean, I, you know… and they also really… this is really important. Every CFO, and I’ve interviewed a lot of them in the Fortune 2000, right? They all want to know… Are we spending what we need to spend? And are we spending it well?
Dina OMara:
Right. Yes.
Mark Stouse:
And, cause…
Dina OMara:
Likewise. Exactly.
Mark Stouse:
Even though their default Has always been to cut marketing and cut sales sometimes, right? what they really want to know is, when can I cut, and when can I increase? When does it make sense to increase? And right now, they don’t have any of that, typically, right? And so, the only safe thing, historically, has been to cut, but now they’re caught on the Delaware ruling and the SEC ruling, and if they say. If they cut too far, and it essentially makes it impossible for the company to grab an upside. That diminishes shareholder value, they can get sued. Right?
Dina OMara:
Exactly, and there’s the impact. Your brand is gone, this is just, yeah, the domino effect. You brought up a really key point, and that brings me back to the humanity aspect of things.
Mark Stouse:
So, yes, we have…
Dina OMara:
causal AI, the real-time go-to-market and pivots and agility, everything needed. We have some next steps we’ll talk about here in a few minutes. Talk about, a little bit about the importance of the humanity element when it comes to now uniting all the functions. Marketing can’t be thinking by itself, the CMO, CFO can’t be thinking by itself, CRO can’t… How this causal AI brings really, truly a unified strategy together. In the metrics, the way in which The data that found it, yeah.
Mark Stouse:
It’s the only honest broker that’s out there, right? Because it’s looking in an impartial way. At all of the factors that we know about, and it’s the only thing that can help you identify unknown unknowns in the system, right? So, that’s part of it. You’re also saying, in a very… so, I’m a humanist, right? So, I believe in people above technology forever. So, I want to use technology to maximize human agency. Because what really is not right, what really Okay? Can’t say it any clearer than that, right? Right. It’s when people are… have accountability, but no agency.
Dina OMara:
That’s right.
Mark Stouse:
Right? Causal AI is what gives you all your options. Again, think about in your car, using a GPS, right? That’s… you get agency. How do I want to get to that restaurant? Do I want the fastest route? Do I want the most scenic route? Right? Maybe I have my significant other with me, and I kind of want beautiful surroundings on the way, right? What do I want? That’s agency, right there, in action. And so… I’m a big believer. Proof is all about that, I mean, that…
Dina OMara:
And the real-time data taking you there, where you have the ability to be agile and real-time adjust.
Mark Stouse:
Well, so.
Dina OMara:
A traffic jam, or whatever that is. So, really.
Mark Stouse:
Well, so let me, let me just say this, because this is really important, okay?
Dina OMara:
Yeah, yeah, and then Alan.
Mark Stouse:
Real-time data is meant for machines. Human beings can’t handle it. What happens when a human being encounters a rapid stream of data is they immediately decelerate, seeking context. Right? And so the value of real time is lost.
Dina OMara:
Yeah. Okay?
Mark Stouse:
What you’re really after is relevant time. What is the decision cadence of the company? What does it need to be? Right?
Dina OMara:
Yes.
Mark Stouse:
One way of kind of identifying that in loose terms right now is what is the cadence of measurement? Because that’s how they currently make decisions. So that’s gonna give you a ballpark on that. So, I’m sorry, you were going to say something else.
Dina OMara:
No, that’s… that’s really key, and one of the human elements I want to emphasize really strongly for our audience is stay focused on your strategy. This has been a theme I’m hearing from all executives in all of our panels. This is. You can look at what this company’s doing and their strategy, whatever. Yes, we have to all be competitive and stay to the forefront, but you need to have your own brand, you need to have your strategy, the success of your company stay focused. So this helps with that in many ways, and that’s the human element. I want to bring to life, a couple of things that I mentioned earlier. The campaign, when we talked about saying 500 leads came from the campaign. Causal AI can let us now say, the campaign caused a 20% higher conversion rate compared to similar accounts not targeted, or customers or partners not targeted, and so forth. So that’s one example.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah, no, it’s a… you can crack the ripple effect of everything.
Dina OMara:
Yes.
Mark Stouse:
Right.
Dina OMara:
And pivot, or, you know, oh, we should be taking less muscle here, pushing here.
Mark Stouse:
Events.
Dina OMara:
Instead of saying 200 people attended, or I had X number of roundtables, I can now say These attendees or roundtables closed these deals in 30 days. I’m looking at sales wins, I’m looking at velocity, I’m looking at the effectiveness of my sponsorship that many of us are looking at all the time. And then…
Mark Stouse:
So, one of the most important things about that.
Dina OMara:
Yeah. Is that…
Mark Stouse:
Marketing is a nonlinear multiplier of sales performance. So, a key output of causal AI is always going to be the multiplier number of whatever factor you’re looking at, right? So, in the aggregate, for a long time. Marketing made sales performance about 8 times more effective.
Dina OMara:
Right?
Mark Stouse:
And that kind of went to hell about 4 years ago, right?
Dina OMara:
Yes, yeah.
Mark Stouse:
So, it was… that is really, really important to understand. that… If you’re a marketer, it’s not that you work for sales in some sort of subordinated role or whatever, right?
Dina OMara:
Right.
Mark Stouse:
You are a multiplier of their performance. And if you were to go away. completely. If they were to completely cancel marketing, right? What would happen would be… All the effects into the future of everything that you’ve already done would continue to give the sense that you’re still around, right? There’s… that multiplier effect perpetuates.
Dina OMara:
And then all of a sudden, sales comes out from underneath.
Mark Stouse:
That shelter, that air cover, and everything just goes to hell.
Dina OMara:
That’s right.
Mark Stouse:
Bam, right?
Dina OMara:
Which stresses the next step points, which is.
Mark Stouse:
Yeah.
Dina OMara:
This is about… Causali really brings together a collaborative, cross-functional unity. That’s number one. That’s the new way of thinking. Everyone has the same goal. Gold.
Mark Stouse:
It’s the basis… it’s actually… this is why I said the honest broker comment earlier.
Dina OMara:
Yeah.
Mark Stouse:
You’ve got to have an independent arbiter of reality that… that gives this social contract known as alignment between people, you know, flexibility, and yet at the same time, rigidity, right?
Dina OMara:
Yeah.
Mark Stouse:
You know, it’s… it’s… you know, you can’t… it’s not just a social contract between people.
Dina OMara:
Right, so I know we are at time. We have a couple of others. I’m going to leave everyone with about… Eight key things from you and I, Mark, for next steps. How do you get started? Number one, you’re breaking silos, break the old, new, old role thinking. Number one. Two, connect your data. This data Marketing data, sales data, have a source of truth, data warehouse, GDPR compliant, etc. Number three, ask the right questions. Be curious. Those questions we talked about earlier, did this convert to sales? Rapidly adjust for differences, have a causal AI model. Measure your incremental lifts so you know what muscle is working and what you need to do. have one dashboard that is, like, everyone is on the same aligned performance dashboard, and then report your causal ROI. So, Mark, thank you so much.
Mark Stouse:
Oh, it’s my pleasure, and if everybody wants to know, right, I mean, so this week, every day, we’re… Launching a report, the next chapter of a report, on 2025 marketing effectiveness. There’s a lot there. Scott Brinker has spoken very highly about the report already on several occasions, so…
Dina OMara:
Yes, just so…
Mark Stouse:
Read it.
Dina OMara:
Yeah, we’ll… you’ll be posting, I’ll post some links and tools for everyone. Julia, thank you so much. Truly important topic for 2026. Thanks for having us.
Julia Nimchinski:
Phenomenal session. Thank you so much, Dina, and thank you, Mark. Dina, what’s the best way for the community to support you?
Dina OMara:
Via LinkedIn. Let’s connect on LinkedIn. I’m happy to advise and support and get some great golden nuggets from everyone as well.